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MARKET COMMENTARY

A weekly look at where mortgage interest rates are headed. A weekly Economic Calendar is also included.

Market Commentary

Over the past week treasuries rallied with continuing speculation that the Fed may cut rates as many as 3 times this year. The yield on U.S. 10yr Treasuries broke below 2.000% for a while during the week, as originators experienced high volumes of locks and are getting pushed beyond capacity in underwriting and process departments.

The coming week brings several top-tier releases, with the key economic data release this week being the core PCE report on Friday. A quiet start today brings just the latest Chicago and Dallas Fed activity surveys. Tuesday brings several housing market reports and the June Conference Board consumer confidence survey. The following day brings the advance goods trade and inventories figures for May, as well as durable goods orders data for the same month. Thursday will see the final release of Q1 GDP data, while the monthly personal income and consumption figures for May – including the closely watched deflators – will follow on Friday. In the bond market, the Treasury will sell 3yr notes on Tuesday, 10yr notes on Wednesday and 30yr bonds on Thursday.

Economic Calendar for the week of 06/24/2019 to 06/28/2019:

Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: FHFA House Price Index, S&P CoreLogic 20-City Survey, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales and New Home Sales
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods Orders, Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories
Thursday: GDP annualized, Personal Consumption, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Core PCE, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and Pending Home Sales
Friday: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Real Personal spending, PCE Deflator and University of Michigan Sentiment

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