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A weekly look at where mortgage interest rates are headed. A weekly Economic Calendar is also included.

Market Commentary

Over the past week, treasuries traded flat and equities fell with the Dow finishing down 1.5%. Mortgages widened vs treasuries and closed the week worse by approximately 20bps.

 To kick off the trading week we saw the Empire Manufacturing index come in today at -8.6, the lowest read since 2016. Additionally, the NAHB Housing Market Index was released with a weaker read than anticipated, amid rising costs and muted demand for housing. NAHB cited “concerns over trade issues” as hundreds of inputs and materials are at the mercy of increased tariffs on Chinese goods. Tomorrow we will get further insight into the housing market with the release of Housing Starts and Building Permits for May; both expected to be slight stronger than the prior month.

 The week’s big headliner comes Wednesday with the FOMC rate decision. It is no longer predictable as to what will be decided or communicated after the decision. Some investors are positioning themselves for a hawkish surprise while others are positioned for dovishness. No real consensus view exists, leaving plenty of uncertainty to how markets will react. On Thursday, Current Account Balance, Phil Fed Outlook, and Leading Index will all be released, in addition to the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, and BBG Consumer Comfort. We’ll wrap up the week with Markit Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI, and Existing Home Sales. All in all, there will be lots of housing data and future interest rate guidance to digest after this week.

Economic Calendar for the week of 06/17/2019 to 06/21/2019:

Monday: Empire Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Flows
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Building Permits
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Current Account Balance, Phil. Fed. Business Outlook, Leading Index
Friday: Markit Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI, Existing Home Sales

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