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A weekly look at where mortgage interest rates are headed. A weekly Economic Calendar is also included.

Market Commentary

Last week saw mortgage rates fall somewhat as the U.S. 10yr fell back below 2.500% to 2.467%. Much of last week’s activity was fueled by the announcements of the US and China each increasing tariffs.

Raw data may be overshadowed in the news this week by continuing developments in the trade war between the U.S. and China. The key economic data release this week is the retail sales report on Wednesday. We also get the Empire Manufacturing index for May on Wednesday, which follows Tuesday’s release of April’s NFIB small business survey. Thursday, we receive May’s Philly Fed Index and the Conference Board’s leading index for April (Friday). Friday brings the Conference Board’s leading index for April and the preliminary University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. There are no UST bond auctions due this week.

Economic Calendar for the week of 05/13/2019 to 05/17/2019:

Monday: N/A
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Import Price Index, Export Price Index and Mortgage Delinquencies
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Friday: Leading Index, University of Michigan Sentiment and Chicago fed National Activity Index

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