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A weekly look at where mortgage interest rates are headed. A weekly Economic Calendar is also included.

Market Commentary

Last week saw the US 10YR climb up above 2.500%, but mortgages held on well and barely moved. The FOMC decision came and went largely as expected with the Fed indicating no interest rate hikes likely in 2019.

This week is a rather light week in terms of economic data. Much of the week may be led by international developments. President Trump threatened (via tweets) to increase tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% and hinted that the 25% tariffs could extend to another $325bn of imports. The increased pressure from Trump comes following constructive rhetoric last week and ahead of this week's resumption of trade negotiations in the US. Following the tweets, China reportedly considered cancelling this week's trade talks, but VP Liu now appears set to arrive a day later than originally scheduled. North Korea conducted a military exercise that potentially included a ballistic missile launch. The missile launch would be the first since 2017. The Trump administration has thus far brushed off the incident, noting that the missile was short-range. The US is sending an aircraft carrier strike group and bomber force to the Middle East, ramping up military pressure on the Iranian regime. It was not immediately evident what catalyzed the move.

Economic Calendar for the week of 05/06/2019 to 05/10/2019:

Monday: N/A
Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Credit
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, PPI, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Friday: CPI, Real Avg Hourly Earnings and Monthly Budget Statement

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